A high win rate is not a profit
A channel that wins 80% of its trades can still lose you money. Whether it does depends on one number most channels never show: the win rate its own stops and targets need.
The number that decides it
Every signal has a stop and a target. If the stop is 40 pips away and the target 10, one loss wipes out four wins. To break even the channel has to win four times out of five:
win rate needed = stop ÷ (stop + target) = 40 ÷ (40 + 10) = 80%
That is before costs. The spread and commission come out of every trade, win or lose, and they take a bigger bite when the target is small, so the real bar is higher still.
What the channels actually do
We worked out the win rate each channel needs from its own stops and targets, then measured how often its signals really hit the target, entering at the price a follower could get the minute after the post. Grouped by how much each channel needs:
| Win rate needed | Channels | Typical need | Typical hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 40% | 35 | 29% | 25% |
| 40% to 60% | 24 | 47% | 47% |
| 60% to 80% | 28 | 70% | 66% |
| 80% or more | 14 | 83% | 81% |
The channels that advertise the highest win rates tend to be the ones with the smallest targets, and those are the ones that need the most. A headline "90% accuracy" says nothing until you know the stop and the target.
An example from the four channels whose records are open to everyone: Ben, Gold Trader hit its target on 82% of 788 signals. Its targets are small next to its stops, so it needed 84% just to break even. Followers averaged −0.023R per signal.
Check any channel yourself
- Take ten recent signals and note the distance to the stop and to the first target.
- Work out stop ÷ (stop + target) for each and take the average. That is the win rate the channel needs before costs.
- Compare it with the win rate the channel claims. If the claim is close to the need, the channel is roughly breaking even, before you pay any spread.
- Watch how wins are counted. A channel that books "TP1 hit" as a win and moves on, while the rest of the position later stops out, is counting a loss as a win.
Every scored channel's page on this site shows the win rate that channel needs, free. Whether it gets there, and what that left a follower with, is in the full record.