Tracked Signals

Win rate calculator

A channel says it wins 75% of its trades. Is that good? It depends on one number most channels never show: the win rate it needs, given how far its targets and stops are. Put in what the channel claims.

Try:

The win rate it needs

79.2%

It claims 75.0%, which is 4.2 points below what it needs. Even if the claim is true, a follower loses about 0.06 of the risk on every trade.

Reward : risk
1 : 3.3
Result per trade
-0.06R
$1,000 after 100 trades at 1% risk
$946

Why a high win rate is not enough

When a stop is three times further away than the target, one loss wipes out three wins. Channels with small targets and wide stops report high win rates and still lose money. Our study of every scored channel found most high win-rate channels lost money for the people following them.

Why the claimed win rate is often too high

  • Counting each target as a win. A signal with three targets that reaches the first one and then the stop is reported as a win.
  • Moving the stop to break-even. Trades closed at entry are counted as wins, not as zero.
  • Deleting losses. A loss removed from the channel never enters its record. We keep them: see what channels deleted this week.
  • Prices a follower cannot get. The entry is posted at a price that has already moved by the time a follower reads it.

So put the claim in, then check what the channel really did at the price a follower could get.

Check a channel