Tracked Signals

Research

Does moving the stop to break-even fix a losing channel?

"It works if you manage it right." Many channels post several targets and tell followers to move the stop to entry once the first is hit. We tested whether managing the trade turns a losing channel into a winning one.

1 of 54losing channels made profitable by a break-even stopstop to entry after the first target
14 of 54made profitable by holding for the last targetwith a deeper worst drawdown for most
7 of 18winning channels that lost when held for the last target
Channels whose signals mostly list several targets, measured at follower prices with costs.

Four ways to take the same signals

We took the 72 channels where at least half the signals list more than one target, and followed every signal four ways, each at the price a follower could get a minute after the post, with spread and commission:

  • Everything at the first target. The rule every verdict on this site uses.
  • Split equally across the targets, each part closing at its own target or the stop.
  • Split with a break-even stop: the same, with the stop moved to the entry once the first target is hit.
  • Hold for the last target with the whole position.

What happened

54 of the 72 channels lost money taking everything at the first target. Moving the stop to entry after it made 1 of them profitable. Splitting across the targets made 6 profitable, and holding for the last target 14.

Holding for the last target is a bigger bet, not a better one: it gave 55 of the 72 channels a deeper worst drawdown, and 7 of the 18 channels that made money at the first target lost money when held to the last. For the typical channel the first target was hit on 68% of signals and the last on 27%.

Why a break-even stop rarely rescues a channel

A stop at entry turns some losses into nothing, but it also closes trades that dip back to the entry before going on to the later targets, and the spread and commission are paid either way. It changes how a channel's losses arrive; it cannot give an edge to entries that do no better than random ones.

So managing the trade changes the ride more often than the result. Members see all four ways side by side for every channel.